CAN YOU WIN WITH EVEN MONEY BETS?
I had many email inquiries asking if they could win even money bets using my system of play. I told them all, “no!” Before examining “even money bets” I did not believe you could win with any of the even money bet systems that were out there. My object was only to show the pitfalls of playing even money bets so you can evaluate any program that someone would want to sell you. I found out there is more than one-way to play even money bets; that if you play a certain way you can dramatically lessen the expected loss. And under certain circumstances with correct playing you can actually turn a calculated negative into a positive outcome when playing a single-zero roulette wheel for 200 or 300 spins.
EMPIRICAL DATA
Once again, from empirical mathematical data obtained from 8,970 spins from single-zero roulette wheels, I found that there are hidden structural patterns that can be identified and used when all six even money bets of red and black and even and odd and high and low numbers are examined. The initial goal was to find the optimal strategy of playing even money bets so as to diminish the expected average loss of 2.70%.
NEW EVIDENCE
From new evidence obtained in an empirical study of even money bets, I have confirmed that “random number generators” cannot be set to mimic a real single-zero roulette wheel. You cannot fully observe this evidence by just comparing how equal the category of red and black or the category odd and even or the category high and low numbers appear over a long period of time. Evidence heavily suggests that the locked-in placement of the red and black category and the odd and even category and the high and low category numbers on single-zero roulette do generate a different result than “random number generators.” The different results can be observed in the hit patterns produced by single and double-zero roulette wheels. In selecting the best strategy to play even money bets, it is important to know that all even money bets are not equal. (Go to Chapter Five and review the mathematically charted evidence, which shows ((on double-zero wheels)) why the placement of the red and black numbers create a different result if you place the red and black numbers in a different 50% arrangement. Notice and compare the amount of runs of one and two spins in each category and you will see why all even money bets are not equal.) Charted single-zero wheel placements will also show similar inclinations.
CORRELATION
In my empirical study of 8,970 spins from single-zero roulette wheels, I found that there was a correlation between each category of even money bets. We will use the red and black category for our explanation of the observed correlation. Now we start with the known fact that if you play black on a single-zero wheel, you will lose at an average of 2.70% and if you play red you also will lose at an average of 2.70%. What is new to this observation, and I have not seen it mentioned in the literature, is that in a series of spins if one person is playing red and the other person is playing black at the same time, that there is the correlation that which ever color is hitting more spins than the other color will lose less than the average 2.70% and the color that is hitting less spins will lose more than 2.70% (A fact: this is true even if one person is playing; he or she will still be affected by the correlation). The win and loss is proportional because every percentage point lost playing one color is accounted for by a gain in the other half of the category. In some series of a couple of hundred spins one side of the equation can hit more than the other side to the extent that one side is truly playing even money and the other side is losing at the combined rate of 2.70% and 2.70% for a total loss of 5.40%. There are times in a series of a couple of hundred spins when one side of the equation can hit enough times to not only overcome the 5.40% loss, but to have a positive outcome. Every winning percentage on one side of the equation must be added as a negative on the other side of the equation. Say red had in three hundred spins a positive outcome of 0.64%, then, black would have a combined loss of 5.40% and 0.64% for a total loss 6.04%.
WHERE TO FIND SINGLE-ZERO SPINS
Go to this site https://www.spielbank-hamburg.de/permanenzen/ which will take you to the recorded daily spins from August 1998 to yesterday’s spins. They record only one of their single-zero roulette wheels each day. The result if you download a day’s worth of spins is you have a permanent copy of every spin that day. The records tell you how many times the category red, and black, odd and even and high and low hit; it gives you how many times the zero and each of the 36 numbers came up; it gives you the information on how many times each of the three columns hit and how many times each of the first 12 (A 1 to 12), second 12 (B 13 to 24) and third 12 (C 25 to 36) hit. It has additional information that is not pertinent at this time to this examination of even money bets. You can download the same 30 days as I did to confirm my mathematics or download some days to practice with not only even money bets but to use them in learning to play “Jack’s Positional Roulette.” Every day the casino only features on their web site one of their several roulette wheels; but I do not know if they use a different wheel every day or every week or every month.
THREE CATEGORIES
When playing “even money bets,” there are three categories: red and black (RB); odd and even (OE); and high and low (HL). To start we will be using three different ways to play: “same as last” spin (SAL); “different than last” spin (DTL) and “individual category” spins” (IC). All spins used were from the year 2001. In Part Four, we will examine “Previous Than Last-Same” (PTL-S) and “Previous Than Last-Different” (PTL-D).
FIRST THREE WAYS OF PLAYING
To start we will document and compare three ways of playing.
(1) The first way of play is you just play individually either red or black or odd or even or high or low for an entire series of spins; “individual category” spins (IC).
(2) The next way of play is called, “Same As Last” (SAL) spin. An example: when playing the red and black (RB) category, if red comes up you play red until black comes up then you play black until red comes up. You only win if you hit red or black at least twice in a row. When a zero hits you play the same as what hit before the zero hit. This is the same for the odd and even (OE) category and the high and low (HL).
(3) The next way of play is called, “Different Than Last” (DTL) spin. An example: When playing, if high comes up, you play the opposite, which is low to come up. You then play for high to come up. You win every time it changes over. When a zero hits you play different than the last hit before the zero. This is the same for (RB) and the (OE) category.
EVEN MONEY BETS
In ten days in June of 2001, we will analyze a series of 2,824 spins.
To start we will use the first way of play: individual category (IC) You just play either red or black or odd or even or high or low the entire series of spins. We will first do the mathematics when playing the category red and black, and the category odd and even and the category high and low. In each category the two parts are each played separately.
ACTUAL LOSSES IN JUNE
In 2,824 spins there were 85 zeros for an average actual statistical loss in ten days of 3.00%. The theoretical statistical loss of 2.70% is 0.30 % less than the actual statistical loss.
342 spins and 6 zeros for an actual 1.75% statistical loss on June 1, 2001.
327 spins and 13 zeros for an actual 3.97% statistical loss on June 2, 2001.
262 spins and 9 zeros for an actual 3.44% statistical loss on June 3, 2001.
335 spins and 7 zeros for an actual 2.08% statistical loss on June 4, 2001.
297 spins and 10 zeros for an actual 3.36 statistical loss on June 5, 2001.
260 spins and 7 zeros for an actual 2.69% statistical loss on June 7, 2001.
364 spins and 9 zeros for an actual 2.47% statistical loss on June 8, 2001.
316 spins and 8 zeros for an actual 3.70% statistical loss on June 9, 2001.
223 spins and 11 zeros for an actual 4.93% statistical loss on June 10, 2001.
198 spins and 5 zeros for an actual 4.04% statistical loss on June 11, 2001.
Total: 2,824 spins and 85 zeros.
COMPARE
Compare the theoretical 2.70% loss with the actual low loss of 1.75 percentage points on June 1, 2001 with the high loss of 4.93% on June 10, 2001. This is a fluctuation of 3.18%. And this fluctuation is one of the reasons why it is so difficult to devise a method of play that can be used to lessen the odds against you.
IMPORTANT CONCEPT
This series hit 85 zeros in 2,824 spins, which gives you a statistical loss of 3%.
The important thing to remember is that in these 2,824 spins if you play red you lose at an average of 3% or if you play black you lose at an average rate of 3%. But this is true only if you have an even amount of red or black; or odd or even; or high or low hits in each category. Otherwise you add your black and red category or even and odd category or high and low category of 3% together: which can gives one side of each category a possible 6% loss in this series. Now whichever hits more times than the other red or black or high or low or odd or even category in this series of spins will lose less than 3% and the one that hits less will increase their 3% loss. The combined loss from an even money bet in this series of numbers can never be less than 3% and 3% for a total of 6%, but it can under certain circumstances lose more than 6% in this series.
COMBINING RED AND BLACK AND ZEROS
Playing red or black for 2,824 spins.
(black) 1,327 + 85 (zeros) = total black loss of 1,412
(red) 1,412 + 85 (zeros) = total red loss of 1,497.
PLAYING (IC) RED
Playing red for 2,824 spins to find out how much you win or lose playing red you must add all the times it hit black (1,327) and each time it hit a zero (85) for a total of 1,412 losing units. It hit red 1,412 times. Since you hit 1,412 red units and lost 1,412 units in 2,824 spins you broke even playing red. So in certain circumstances (You exceeded your expected average loss by hitting more extra hits than you hit zeros) you can in certain circumstances be winning more even money bets than you are losing.
PLAYING (IC) BLACK
Playing black for 2,824 spins to find out how much you win or lose playing black you must add all the times it hit red 1,412 and each time it hit a zero (85) for a total of 1,497 hits. It hit black 1,327. Since you lost more units (1,497) than you won (1,327), you subtract 1,327 from 1,497 and find that in 2,824 spins, you lost 170 units for a loss of 6%.
Proof: Adding reds 0% and blacks 6% loss, you have a combined loss of 6%.
PLAYING (IC) ODD AND EVEN
Playing odd and even for 2,824 spins.
(Odd) 1,361 plus 85 zeros = 1,446.
(Even) 1,378 plus 85 zeros = 1,463.
Subtract 1,361 from 1,463 for a loss of 102 units or minus 3.61% for playing odd numbers.
Subtract 1,378 from 1,446 for a loss of 68 units or minus 2.40% for playing even numbers.
Proof: Adding odd (3.6%) and even (2.4%) losses, you have a combined loss of 6%.
PLAYING (IC) HIGH AND LOW
Playing high and low for 2,824 spins.
(High) 1,363 plus 85 zeros = 1,448.
(Low) 1,376 plus 85 zeros = 1,461.
Subtract (H) 1,363 from 1,461 for a loss of 98 units or minus 3.47% for playing high numbers.
Subtract (L) 1,376 from 1,458 for a loss of 72 units or minus 2.54% for playing low numbers.
Proof: Adding high 3.5% and low 2.5%, you have a combined loss of 6%.
EVEN MONEY BETS
In ten days in September of 2001, we will analyze a series of 3,019spins.
To start we will use the first (1) way of play: you just play either red or black or odd or even or high or low the entire series of spins (IC). We will first do the mathematics when playing the category red and black, and the category odd and even and the category high and low. In each category the two parts are each played separately.
ACTUAL LOSSES IN SEPTEMBER
In 3,019 spins there were 69 zeros for an average actual statistical loss in ten days of 2.28%. Now 2.28 and 2.28 = 4.56%
312 spins and 9 zeros for an actual 2.88% statistical loss on September 1, 2001.
318 spins and 4 zeros for an actual 1.25% statistical loss on September 2, 2001.
230 spins and 2 zeros for an actual 0.86% statistical loss on September 3, 2001.
193 spins and 6 zeros for an actual 3.10% statistical loss on September 4, 2001.
275 spins and 8 zeros for an actual 2.90% statistical loss on September 5, 2001.
338 spins and 10 zeros for an actual 2.95% statistical loss on September 6, 2001.
333 spins and 5 zeros for an actual 1.50% statistical loss on September 7, 2001.
289 spins and 6 zeros for an actual 2.07% statistical loss on September 8, 2001.
395 spins and 11 zeros for an actual 2.78% statistical loss on September 9, 2001.
336 spins and 8 zeros for an actual 2.38% statistical loss on September 10, 2001.
COMPARE
3,019 spins and 69 zeros for an average actual loss in ten days of 2.28%.
Compare the theoretical 2.70% loss with the actual low loss of 0.86% on September 3, 2001 with the high loss of 3.10% on September 4, 2001. This is a fluctuation of 2.24%.
And this fluctuation is one of the reasons why it is so difficult to devise a method of play that can be used to lessen the odds against you.
IMPORTANT CONCEPT
Hitting 69 zeros in 3,019 spins gives you a loss of 2.28%.
The important thing to remember is that in these 3,019 spins if you play red you lose at an average of 2.28% or if you play black you lose at an average rate of 2.28%. But this is true only if you have an even amount of red or black; or odd and even; or high or low spins. Otherwise you add your black and red 2.28% together, which gives you a 4.56% loss. Now whichever hits more times than the other red or black category or high or low category or odd or even category will lose less than 2.28% and the one that hits less will increase their 2.28% loss, but it can under certain circumstances lose more than 4.56% in this series of 3,019 spins.
COMBINING RED AND BLACK AND ZEROS
(black) 1,518+ 69 (zeros) = total black 1,587 lost
(red) 1,432 + 69 (zeros) = total red 1,501 lost.
PLAYING (IC) BLACK
Playing black for 3,019 spins to find out how much you win or lose playing black you must add all the times it hit red 1,432 times and the 69 zeros, which is a total loss of 1,501units. It hit black 1,518. Since you won more black units (1,518) than you lost (1,501), you subtract 1,501 from 1,518 and find that in 3,019 spins, you won 17 units for a win of 0.56% playing black.
PLAYING (IC) RED
In 3,019 spins to find out how much you win or lose playing red you must add all the times it hit black 1,518 and add the 69 zeros a total loss of 1,587 times. It hit red 1,432 times. Since you lost more black units (1,587) than you won red units (1,432) you subtract 1,432 from1,587 and find that in 3,019 spins you lost 155 more red units than you won for a loss of 5.13% when playing red.
You lost 2.28% and 2.28% and 0.56% the amount black won, which is a negative for red. Proof: Subtract black’s plus 0.56% from reds loss of 5.13% and you have 4.56%.
PLAYING (IC) EVEN AND ODD
(Even) 1,469 plus 69 zeros = 1,538.
(Odd) 1,481 plus 69 zeros = 1,550.
Subtract 1,481 from 1,538 for a loss of 57 units or minus 1.88% for playing odd numbers. Subtract 1,469 from 1,550 for a loss of 81 units or minus 2.68% for playing even numbers.
Proof: Adding odd (1.88%) and even (2.68%) losses, you have a combined loss of 4.56%.
PLAYING (IC) HIGH AND LOW
Playing high and low for 3019 spins.
(High) 1,492 plus 69 zeros = 1,561.
(Low) 1,458 plus 69 zeros = 1,527.
Subtract (H) 1,492 from 1,527 for a loss of 35 units or minus 1.15% for playing high numbers. Subtract (L) 1,458 from 1,561 for a loss of 103 units or minus 3.41% for playing low numbers.
Proof: Adding high’s loss of 1.15% and low’s loss of 3.41%, you have a combined loss of 4.56%.
EVEN MONEY BETS
In ten days in November of 2001, we will analyze a series of 3127 spins. (November 7 is not included in this series because nothing was recorded that day.)
To start we will use the first way of play (IC): you just play either red or black or odd or even or high or low the entire series of spins. We will first do the mathematics when playing the category red and black, and the category odd and even and the category high and low. In each category the two parts are each played separately.
ACTUAL LOSSES IN NOVEMBER
In 3,127 spins there were 87 zeros for an average actual statistical loss in ten days of 2.78%. Proof: adding 2.78 and 2.78 = 5.56%.
249 spins and 6 zeros for an actual 2.04% statistical loss on November 1, 2001.
214 spins and 7 zeros for an actual 3.27% statistical loss on November 2, 2001.
333 spins and 8 zeros for an actual 2.40% statistical loss on November 3, 2001.
249 spins and 7 zeros for an actual 2.81% statistical loss on November 4, 2001.
287 spins and 9 zeros for an actual 3.13% statistical loss on November 5, 2001.
287 spins and 3 zeros for an actual 1.04% statistical loss on November 6, 2001.
000 spins on November 7, 2001
367 spins and 14 zeros for an actual 3.81% statistical loss on November 8, 2001.
369 spins and 7 zeros for an actual 1.89% statistical loss on November 9, 2001.
401 spins and 10 zeros for an actual 2.99% statistical loss on November 10, 2001.
371 spins and 16 zeros for an actual 4.31% statistical loss on November 11, 2001.
COMPARE
3,127 spins and 87 zeros for an average actual loss in ten days of 2.78%
Compare the theoretical 2.70% loss with the low loss of 1.04% on November 6, 2001 with the high loss of 4.31% on November 11, 2001. This is a fluctuation of 3.27%. And this fluctuation is one of the reasons why it is so difficult to devise a method of play that can be used to lessen the odds against you.
IMPORTANT CONCEPT
The series hit 87 zeros in 3,127 spins, which gives a loss of 2.78%. The combined loss from an even money bet in this series of numbers can never be less than 2.78% and 2.78% for a total of 5.56%, but it can in certain circumstances be more than 5.56% in this series.
COMBINING RED AND BLACK AND ZEROS
(Black) 1,498 + 87 = 1,585.
(Red) 1,542 + 87 = 1,629.
PLAYING (IC) RED AND BLACK
Subtract (B) 1,498 from 1,629 for a loss of 131units, which is loss of 4.19% for playing black for 3,127 spins. Subtract (R) 1,542 from 1,585 for a loss of 43units, which is a loss of 1.37% for playing red for 3,127 spins.
Proof: Add black’s loss of 4.19% and red’s loss of 1.37% for a combined loss of 5.56%.
COMBINING EVEN AND ODD AND ZEROS
(Even) 1,545 + 87 = 1,632.
(Odd) 1,495 + 87 = 1,582.
PLAYING (IC) EVEN AND ODD
Subtract (E) 1,545 from 1,582 for a loss 37 units, which is a loss of 1.18% for playing even for 3,127 spins. Subtract (O) 1,495 from 1,632 for a loss of 137 units, which is a loss of 4.38% for playing odd for 3,127 spins.
Proof: Add the odd loss of 4.38% and even loss of 1.18% for a combined loss of 5.56%.
COMBINING HIGH AND LOW AND ZEROS
(High) 1,564 + 87 = 1,651
(Low) 1,476 + 87 = 1,563
PLAYING (IC) HIGH AND LOW
Subtract 1,563 from (H) 1,564 for a win of one unit, which is a win of 0.03% for playing high for 3,127 spins. Subtract (L) 1,476 from 1,651 for a loss of 175 units, which is a loss of 5.59% for playing low for 3,127 spins.
Proof: Subtract the high 0.03% win from the low loss of 5.59% for a combined loss of 5.56%
COMBINING ALL THREE SERIES AND ZEROS
(A) Series: 2,824 spins (85 zeros).
(B) Series: 3,019 spins (69 zeros).
(C) Series: 3,127 spins (87 zeros).
Total spins: 8,970 total (241 zeros).
ADDING ALL THREE SERIES
(A) – black 1,327 – red 1,412 – even 1,378 – odd 1,361 – high 1,363 – low 1,376.
(B) – black 1,518 – red 1,432 – even 1,469 – odd 1,481 – high 1,492 – low 1,458.
(C) – black 1,498 – red 1,542 – even 1,545 – odd 1,495 – high 1,564 – low 1,476.
Total Black 4,343 – red 4,386 – even 4,392 – odd 4,337 – high 4,419 – low 4,310.
COMBINING TOTAL HITS AND ZEROS
(B) 4,343 + 241 zeros = 4584.
(R) 4,386 + 241 zeros = 4627.
(E) 4,392 + 241 zeros = 4633.
(O) 4,337 + 241 zeros = 4578.
(H) 4,419 + 241 zeros = 4660.
(L) 4,310 + 241 zeros = 4551.
241 zeros, in 8,970 spins gives a statistical loss of 2.68%. Proof: Add 2.68% and 2.68% for a total combined loss of 5.36%.
THREE (IC) RED AND BLACK SERIES
Subtract (B) 4,343 from 4,627 for a loss of 284 units, which is a minus 3.16% black loss in 8970 spins. Subtract (R) 4,386 from 4,584 for a loss of 198 units which is a minus 2.20% red loss in 8,970 spins.
Proof: Add the black loss of 3.16% with the red loss of 2.20% for a total loss of 5.36%.
THREE (IC) EVEN AND ODD SERIES
Subtract (E) 4,392 from 4,578 for a loss of 186 units, which is a 2.07% even loss in 8,970 spins. Subtract (O) 4,337 from 4,633 for a loss of 296 units, which is a 3.29% odd loss in 8,970 spins.
Proof: Add the even loss of 2.07% with the odd loss of 3.29% for a total loss of 5.36%
THREE (IC) HIGH AND LOW SERIES
Subtract (H) 4,419 from 4,551 for a loss of 132 units, which is a 1.47% high loss in 8,970 spins. Subtract (L) 4,310 from 4,660 for a loss of 350 units, which is a 3.90% low loss in 8,970 spins.
Proof: Add the high loss of 1.47% with the low loss of 3.90% for a total loss of 5.36%.
SUMMATION
You should understand by now why you do not play more than one even money bet at a time. You might double your losses or triple your losses if you play all three of them. And you do not play partners where one plays red and the other plays black or odd and the other even or high and the other low. You gain nothing playing this way, because at times both sides of the category are losing. Although it is interesting to know that there is a connection between the three categories, it does nothing to help us to distinguish which part of each category is going to be a winner or a loser for that day of play. If we had that information on single-zero roulette wheel, we would lower “substantially” the average 2.70% odds against us, and some times actually win. I have not found a way to do this playing a single red or black or even or odd or high or low series of spins. One of the reasons is because on June 10, 2001, there were 223 spins and 11 zeros for an actual loss of 4.93% for that day; then on September 3, 2001, there were 230 spins and two zeros for an actual loss of only 0.86% for that day. In 8,970 spins there were 241 zeros for a total in 90 days of minus 2.68%, which is only 0.02 percentage points less than the mathematical odds of 2.70%.
EN PRISON OR SURRENDER
Now we will observe the results of playing “en prison” or “surrender” which some casinos allow when playing even money bets on a single-zero roulette wheel. Both ways cut the casino’s percentage. If you are playing black on an even money bet and it hits a zero, the casino places your bet on black “en prison” until the next spin. If it hits black the next spin you get to keep it. They do not pay you for it you just get to remove it. If it had hit red or another zero you lose the bet. Over time you will win about 50% and lose about 50% of the time. If the casinos have “surrender,” when a zero comes up you just lose 50% of your bet. Either way it cuts your losses in half.
Below is the results of playing either “en prison” or “surrender” with the same 8,970 spins. Instead of using 241 zeros I used just half or 120 zeros for my calculations.
COMBINING TOTAL HIT AND HALF THE ZEROS.
(B) 4,343 + 120 zeros = 4,463.
(R) 4,386 + 120 zeros = 4,506.
(E) 4,392 + 120 zeros = 4,512.
(O) 4,337 + 120 zeros = 4,457.
(H) 4,419 + 120 zeros = 4,539.
(L) 4,310 + 120 zeros = 4,430.
PLAYING (IC) RED AND BLACK
120 zeros in 8,970 spins gives a statistical loss of 1.337%. Proof: Add minus 1.337% and minus 1.337% for a total combined loss of 2.67%.
Subtract (B) 4,343 from 4,506 for a loss of 163 units, which is a 1.81% black loss in 8,970 spins. Subtract (R) 4,386 from 4,463 for a loss of 77 units, which is a 0.85% red loss in 8,970 spins.
Proof: Add the black loss of 1.81% with the red loss of 0.86% for a total loss of 2.67%.
PLAYING (IC) EVEN AND ODD
Subtract (E) 4,392 from 4,457 for a loss of 65 units, which is a 0.72% even loss in 8,970 spins. Subtract (O) 4,337 from 4,512 for a loss of 175 units, which is a 1.95% odd loss in 8,970 spins.
Proof: Add the even loss of 0.72% with the odd loss 1.95% for a total loss of 2.67%
PLAYING (IC) HIGH AND LOW
Subtract (H) 4,419 from 4,430 for a loss of 11 units, which is a 0.12% high loss in 8,970 spins. Subtract (L) 4,310 from 4,539 for a loss of 229 units, which is 2.55% low loss in 8,970 spins.
Proof: Add the high loss of 0.12% with the low loss of 2.55% for a total loss of 2.67%.
EN PRISON AND SURRENDER SUMMARY
The same problems exist: you do not know in advance which category will hit more or which will hit less. Of course, instead of averaging a loss of 2.68% and 2.68% for a -5.36%, loss in these series, playing “surrender” or “en prison” you only average a loss of 1.337% and 1.337% for an average of 2.67%, which is about a 50% difference. Because of the large amount of hits high had, it had only a statistical loss 0.12% in 9,870 spins. This is a long time result but when you use daily results you will sometimes actually be in the plus column; and within that daily result you will have sharp wins and losses with the negatives dominating. But playing individual categories, you will be gambling (which is what you do in casinos) that you will choose an individual category that is dominant at that moment of play.
PREDICTION
So we are back to the beginning: is there any way to predict in advance when playing (IC) which half of a category is going to have the most hits? I will have to say, “NO!” But in the next part we will see a couple of strategies of playing that can be used to keep your losses to a minimum when playing single-zero roulette wheels.
TO BE CONTINUED